Small Business Optimism Hits 5-Year High: What the JP Morgan Data Means for You
Contributed by SBOC Member:
Pat Miller
Founder of the Small Business Owners Community
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The Numbers Are In
JP Morgan Chase just released their Business Leaders Outlook, and the vibes are good.
60% of small businesses feel more positive about their business now than at any point in the last five years.
That’s saying something. Five years includes a pandemic, supply chain chaos, inflation spikes, and recession fears. And yet—here we are. More optimistic than ever.
The Full Breakdown
Here’s what the data shows:
- 74% are optimistic about their company’s outlook for 2026
- 76% expect revenue growth this year
- 76% expect profits to increase
- 53% plan to increase headcount
- Only 27% expect a recession (down from 40% last year)
Wait—53% Are Hiring MORE People?
This is the number that made my head explode.
Every headline screams that AI is coming for jobs. That automation will replace workers. That headcount is going down.
But 53% of small businesses surveyed said they’re INCREASING headcount in 2026. Not decreasing. Not staying flat. Increasing.
The talent war isn’t over—89% said they still can’t find qualified applicants. But optimism is high, and hiring is happening.
Why This Matters for You
Mindset matters. When you’re heads-down grinding, it’s easy to feel like you’re the only one struggling. You’re not.
If 60% of your peers feel more positive than they have in five years, maybe there’s something to that. Maybe the opportunities are there. Maybe 2026 really is the year things click.
The Recession Fear Is Fading
Only 27% expect a recession this year—down from almost 40% last year. The doom and gloom narrative is losing steam.
That doesn’t mean everything is perfect. But it does mean the mood has shifted. Business owners are betting on growth, not contraction.
The Bottom Line
The data says optimism is at a five-year high. The question is: are you positioned to capitalize on it?
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Contributed by
Pat Miller
Founder of the Small Business Owners Community
Pat spent two decades in broadcasting management and hosting. After leaving the radio industry, he spent time consulting small businesses and realized the support system for entrepreneurs was broken. Where could you find help for improving small businesses and building real connections with other like-minded people. In June of 2020, the Idea Collective Small Business Community was born.